On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially characterized the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. As cases of COVID-19 spread to Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz signed Executive Order 20-01 on March 13, declaring a peacetime emergency. Subsequent executive orders would require the temporary closure of bars, restaurants, and “other places of public accommodation,” and “directed Minnesotans to stay at home except for certain exempted activities and critical sector work.” These drastic steps were taken to ensure that Minnesota could slow the rate of COVID-19’s spread enough to acquire needed medical equipment, prepare medical staff and facilities and avoid overwhelming the health care system.
Leading up to these closures, and the sharp turn of events caused by COVID-19, where did things stand in Minnesota and the Seven-County Metro Area? Data from DEED’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program can give us a broad, as well as in-depth, look at how Minnesota and its regions and counties were doing just up to the onset of COVID-19.
In 2019, there were an average of 84,632 establishments in the Seven-County Metro Area supplying just over 1,773,000 jobs. Total payroll for 2019 topped $117.8 billion, with average annual industry wages of $66,456. Over the past year of available data, the Metro Area added nearly 10,800 jobs, growing by 0.6 percent.
It should be noted that this annual employment growth was slower than past years. For example, since the end of the Great Recession in 2010, the Metro Area averaged annual employment growth of 1.7 percent, which is equivalent to 26,200 jobs per year. Over the past five years, between 2014 and 2019, the Metro Area averaged annual employment growth of 1.6 percent – equivalent to 25,900 jobs per year. So, it was really in the past year that employment growth started to cool off in the region. Zooming in, employment growth exceeded one percent over the year in Anoka, Washington, and Scott counties (see Table 1).
|
Table 1. Metro Area Employment Statistics, 2019 |
||||||
|
Area |
Annual 2019 Data |
2018 – 2019 Job Change |
||||
|
Number of Establishments |
Number of Jobs |
Total Payroll ($1,000s) |
Avg. Annual Wage |
Numeric |
Percent |
|
|
Minnesota |
178,242 |
2,900,290 |
$172,936,995 |
$59,644 |
+18,383 |
+0.6% |
|
Metro Area |
84,632 |
1,773,078 |
$117,800,140 |
$66,456 |
+10,763 |
+0.6% |
|
Hennepin County |
40,439 |
936,492 |
$68,540,616 |
$73,216 |
+5,659 |
+0.6% |
|
Ramsey County |
14,021 |
334,680 |
$21,749,708 |
$65,000 |
+762 |
+0.2% |
|
Dakota County |
10,556 |
190,960 |
$11,089,726 |
$58,084 |
+854 |
+0.4% |
|
Anoka County |
7,692 |
127,559 |
$7,008,473 |
$54,912 |
+1,780 |
+1.4% |
|
Washington County |
5,973 |
88,186 |
$4,336,681 |
$49,140 |
+1,162 |
+1.3% |
|
Scott County |
3,404 |
54,713 |
$2,819,134 |
$51,480 |
+661 |
+1.2% |
|
Carver County |
2,549 |
40,487 |
$2,255,802 |
$55,692 |
-116 |
-0.3% |
|
Source: MN DEED Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) |
||||||
Measures taken to slow the spread of COVID-19 have had larger impacts on certain industries. Among the most impacted include Accommodation and Food Services (notably restaurants and bars); Personal Care Services; Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; and more recently Retail Trade and Construction. Table 2 highlights the scope of employment in these industries for the Metro Area, leading up to the onset of COVID-19. For example, Accommodation and Food Services makes up 13.5 percent of Scott County’s total employment, whereas it only makes up 7.2 percent of total employment in Ramsey County. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, for its part, is twice as concentrated in Scott County as it is in the rest of the Metro Area.
For a closer look at these trends, check out DEED’s new Regional Industry Profiles page online.
|
Table 2. Metro Area Select Industry Statistics, 2019 |
||||||
|
Area |
Number of Jobs (Share of Total Employment) |
|||||
|
Total, All Jobs |
Retail Trade |
Accommodation and Food Services |
Construction |
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation |
Personal Care Services |
|
|
Minnesota |
2,900,290 |
293,283 (10.1%) |
235,222 (8.1%) |
134,248 (4.6%) |
53,533 (1.8%) |
16,325 (0.6%) |
|
Metro Area |
1,773,078 |
164,605 (9.3%) |
140,768 (7.9%) |
75,561 (4.3%) |
36,224 (2.0%) |
12,079 (0.7%) |
|
Hennepin Co. |
936,492 |
75,475 (8.1%) |
70,414 (7.5%) |
31,787 (3.4%) |
16,608 (1.8%) |
6,006 (0.6%) |
|
Ramsey Co. |
334,680 |
25,774 (7.7%) |
24,090 (7.2%) |
12,238 (3.7%) |
6,668 (2.0%) |
1,532 (0.5%) |
|
Dakota Co. |
190,960 |
24,114 (12.6%) |
15,601 (8.2%) |
10,468 (5.5%) |
3,751 (2.0%) |
1,582 (0.8%) |
|
Anoka Co. |
127,559 |
15,779 (12.4%) |
10,212 (8.0%) |
8,838 (6.9%) |
3,316 (2.6%) |
1,063 (0.8%) |
|
Washington Co. |
88,186 |
14,184 (16.1%) |
9,469 (10.7%) |
4,298 (4.9%) |
2,311 (2.6%) |
1,242 (1.4%) |
|
Scott Co. |
54,713 |
5,770 (10.5%) |
7,398 (13.5%) |
5,286 (9.7%) |
2,261 (4.1%) |
396 (0.7%) |
|
Carver Co. |
40,487 |
3,509 (8.7%) |
3,583 (8.8%) |
2,646 (6.5%) |
1,305 (3.2%) |
256 (0.6%) |
|
Source: MN DEED Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) |
||||||
The Labor Market Information Office will provide updated QCEW data, as we continue to learn more about the short-term and long-term employment and other economic impacts of COVID-19 on the State of Minnesota and its regions.
For more information Twin Cities Metro Area, contact Tim O’Neill, Labor Market Analyst, at timothy.oneill@state.mn.us
